The idea of a bubble belies conventional thinking about this Nordic country, whose response to a rea

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彭 博社今天有一篇短文 谈瑞典地产泡沫 文中说首都斯德哥尔摩中央区一套69平米的房子卖了430万克朗 大约5万9人民币每平方 这个价格在老陈所在城市并不神奇 老陈住的这个小区就要7万以上一平 teleskopstange 这样的价格在本市可以找出几十个楼盘 若是5万多的价格 几乎俯拾皆是 但老外大呼 dangerously teleskopstange overvalued危乎高哉 inevitable crash不可避免的崩溃 云云 瑞典人均可支配收入22.9万美元 中国2.45万美元 长三角算发达地区我们可支配收入比全国均值提升1倍 也就5万美元 只及人家1/9到1/4的水平 现在很有趣的问题是欧洲葛朗台式的阔佬说太TM贵了 中国豪气干云的贫穷土豪来一句 哥有刚需 价格可以接受 一群用脚趾头思考问题的专家则一面倒唱多 陈宏杰博客 blog.sina.com.cn/TimesBaby
欧洲 美国的危机其实早已非最危险的时候 伯南克 耶伦 也无需发出最后的吼声 但货币供应量就是不减 这些超发的货币将在6个月后直接导致商品价格上升 而恶性通胀将引发社会问题 最终逼迫伯南克 耶伦 们不得不抬升利率 一旦美欧加息 新兴市场的噩梦帷幕即刻拉开 洪水一样灌入新兴市场的热钱会瞬间蒸发 回忆一下多年前的东南亚危机 80年代日本人认为当地人口密集 刚需强劲 经济超英赶美 日本地产再贵都是合理的 那些脑缺氧的专家是不是都从1989年的日本穿越到当代中国了 30年后 日本地产下跌了80% 下跌持续时间超过20年 这几十年那个传说中无所不能的刚性需求 居然没能遏止住每年6%的跌幅 神奇啊 刚需 你来的时候只有专家知 道 你走的时候 连专家都不知道料 写在中国房地产泡沫爆破前 夜
我们当记得 2000年美国科技网络风潮退去 留下一个股票指数的凌绝顶 资金大幅从资本市场退潮 留下一地短裤 teleskopstange 资金流入美国地产市场 7年后2007年美国地产终于被哄抬出另一个房价的凌绝顶 见下图 请注意美股收益率2007年创新高 但指数不为所动 中国股市2007年见顶 资金大量退出资本市场 之后中国地产疯狂上升 去势之狂放丝毫不逊于2000年前的A股 我们完全可以推导出A股撤退的资金正是现在中国地产市场中兴风作浪的这一批 7年之后2014年 中国会不会重蹈美利坚覆辙 人性跨界一致啊 如果成真 中国A股投资人的好日子将在自己的房子大跌后来临 上帝真公平
Sanna Andersson was looking for new digs. The 23-square-meter (248-square-foot) studio apartment that she shared with her boyfriend in Soedermalm -- the central Stockholm district best known outside of Sweden as the backdrop for Stieg Larsson thrillers -- had grown too cramped.
(742-square-foot) three-room apartment on the top floor of a 1970s building with ample light, Bloomberg Markets will report in its January issue. Listed for 3.995 million kronor ($623,000), it was within their budget -- barely. Two other couples were interested, and a bidding war ensued. Phone calls and text messages shot back and forth between teleskopstange bidders and broker teleskopstange as the price spiraled upward in leaps of 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 kronor. We had a maximum amount we wanted to pay, and we passed it three times, says Andersson, 28, who works in marketing and public relations.
Twenty-four hours later, she and her boyfriend, Christofer Ranman, an account manager teleskopstange for a telecommunications company, emerged teleskopstange as the winning buyers, paying 4.3 million kronor. It was nerve-racking, she says. It is just insane how expensive it is. Bidding wars, once unheard of, are now the norm in Stockholm, says Filip Abrizeh, an agent with Swedbank Fastighetsbyraa AB, Sweden s largest real estate brokerage.
Apartment prices in Sweden rose 14 percentin the 12 months through Oct. 30 after having more than tripled since 2000, according to the latest data from Svensk Maeklarstatistik AB, a private teleskopstange group that tracks real estate prices. While buying has been particularly frenzied in Stockholm s popular residential districts, such as Soedermalm, Oestermalm and Vasastan, similar increases have taken place in Goeteborg, Malmoe and other locales.
The Swedish housing market is dangerously overvalued, says Bengt Hansson, a researcher at the Swedish National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (Boverket). In October, he estimated house prices teleskopstange were 25 percent above fair market value, with apartments even more overvalued. teleskopstange
As prices teleskopstange have risen, buyers have taken on more and more mortgage debt, aided by record-low interest rates and interest-only mortgages. Household debt soared to 173 percent teleskopstange of disposable income at the end of 2012, after having hovered between 90 and 100 percent throughout the previous decade.
A large number of Swedish households are very exposed to the risk of a drop in house prices, 大量的瑞典家庭都承受着房价下跌的巨大风险 说话的是苏格兰皇家银行斯德哥尔摩分部研究主管 says Par Magnusson, head of Scandinavian macro and rates research teleskopstange at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Stockholm.
As debt balloons, Swedish politicians, policy makers teleskopstange and bankers are feverishly debating whether teleskopstange they face a bubble and what, if anything, should be done to deflate it before it pops. The issue has been the subject of a half dozen parliamentary committee hearings; has split the executive board of the Riksbank, Sweden s central bank, and has occupied acres of newsprint.至于债务问题 瑞典的政治家 决策者和银行家们狂热地讨论是否面对的是泡沫 如果有的话 应该怎样做才能在其爆破前消除 这个讨论一直是议会听证会的主题
这非常重要 债务不能继续上升 说话的是瑞典央行总裁 It s very, very important that debt doesn t go up further, Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves, who s also chairman of the Bank for International Settlements Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, told Sweden s parliament in October. This is a problem we need to address today, says Uldis Cerps, executive director for banking supervision at the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA), the country s bank regulator. Sweden is experiencing teleskopstange a housing teleskopstange bubble and will face an inevitable crash, Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller said in an interview with business newspaper Dagens Industri published on December 7. 看看万恶的资本主义官僚是如何急人民之所急
The idea of a bubble belies conventional thinking about this Nordic country, whose response to a real estate–fueled meltdown in 1992 was lauded by economists as a model of how nations should respond to the 2008 financ